Fuel
Raw Material Dependency
Fuel is a major operating cost; average price per gallon declined from $3.01 (2023) to $2.44 (2025) while consumption rose to 4,663M gallons; fuel price volatility can trigger asset impairments.
Relevance 90·Dependency 85·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Average price per gallon of fuel, including fuel taxes$2.44$2.65$3.01
Fuel gallons consumed (millions)4,6634,4444,205”
Jet fuel / oil prices
Cost Driver
Volatile fuel prices are a top factor impacting results; 4,663M gallons consumed in 2025 at $2.44/gallon average.
Relevance 90·Dependency 80·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“volatile fuel prices”
DOT/FAA regulation
Regulatory Exposure
Extensive DOT and FAA oversight imposes significant compliance costs; FAA directives can force grounding of aircraft and substantial unplanned expenses; new DOT rules would impose additional costs and operational restrictions.
Relevance 85·Dependency 75·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The FAA has issued directives that require air carriers to inspect, modify or ground aircraft and other equipment, potentially causing the Company to incur substantial, unplanned expenses.”
Labor market constraints and union negotiations
Cost Driver
Labor market constraints, new labor contract costs, union disputes and strikes are disclosed risks; most employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements under the RLA and many contracts are amendable/under negotiation.
Relevance 80·Dependency 75·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“labor market constraints and related costs, supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures”
Economic conditions and travel demand
Demand Driver
An economic downturn decreasing air travel demand is a key factor impacting results; seasonality drives stronger Q2/Q3 revenues.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“an economic downturn leading to a decrease in demand for air travel or fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates that may impact international travel demand”
Supply chain constraints
Cost Driver
Supply chain constraints and related costs affecting United and its partners are among the most impactful factors, and constrain aircraft delivery supporting the United Next plan.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“supply chain constraints and related costs affecting us and our partners”
MileagePlus loyalty members and co-branded credit card customers
Revenue Exposure
Loyalty program and co-branded credit card benefits are a material revenue contributor exposed to potential legal reshaping.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“any legal requirement that would result in a reshaping of the benefits that we provide to our consumers through our loyalty program or the co-branded credit cards issued by our partner”
Russia-Ukraine military conflict
Geopolitical Exposure
United's overflying of Russian airspace is suspended as a result of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, affecting route economics on Asia routes.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the suspension of our overflying in Russian airspace as a result of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict”
Geopolitical conflicts
Demand Driver
Regional conflicts can close flying airspace, interrupt operations, and disrupt overflight routes; military conflicts across the globe have interrupted flying.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the closure of our flying airspace and termination of other operations due to regional conflicts”
Tariffs on imported commercial aircraft, engines and parts, including supplier pass-through, may raise acquisition costs.
Relevance 70·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“The imposition of new tariffs, any increase in existing tariffs, and retaliatory tariffs implemented by other countries where United operates, on the importation of commercial aircraft, engines or commercial aircraft parts that the Company orders may result in higher costs.”
Interest rates / leverage
Cost Driver
Substantial leverage means a portion of debt is at variable interest rates, exposing United to interest rate risk, and significant cash flow is dedicated to debt service.
Relevance 65·Dependency 60·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“we are exposed to increased interest rate risk given that a portion of our indebtedness obligations are at variable interest rates”
AI and automated systems
Technology Dependency
AI and automated systems are increasingly important to operations; competitive risk if rivals adopt AI faster, plus risks from inaccurate output, ethics, regulation and AI-related cybersecurity incidents.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Automated systems and technologies, including AI, are becoming increasingly important in our operations over time.”
Government shutdowns and government spending
Competitive Exposure
Extended federal government shutdown and budgetary decisions limiting government spending or reducing staffing of agencies (FAA/DOT, ATC) are cited as impactful to operations.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“an extended federal government shutdown as well as any other budgetary decisions limiting or delaying government spending or reducing staffing of government agencies with which we interact routinely”
Foreign currency exchange rates
Currency Exposure
Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates may impact international travel demand.
Relevance 50·Dependency 35·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates that may impact international travel demand”
EU General Data Protection Regulation
Regulatory Exposure
GDPR imposes significant privacy and data security requirements with potential substantial penalties for non-compliance.
Relevance 50·Dependency 35·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“the EU's General Data Protection Regulation imposes significant privacy and data security requirements, as well as potential for substantial penalties for non-compliance”