Depositors
Customer Exposure
Depositor retention drives funding costs; deposit outflows would require more expensive wholesale funding, compressing net interest margin and income.
Relevance 95·Dependency 85·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Any adverse movement in deposits and associated higher funding costs could reduce our net interest margin and net interest income and otherwise materially and adversely affect our liquidity, financial condition, and results of operations.”
Cybersecurity
Currency Exposure
Key's heavy reliance on information systems and third parties makes cyberattack/technology failure a core operational risk with potential legal, regulatory, and financial consequences.
Relevance 95·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“We rely heavily on communications, information systems (both internal and provided by third parties), and the internet to conduct our business.”
United States
Revenue Exposure
Profitability depends on U.S. economic conditions; worsening U.S. economy or recessionary conditions could negatively affect business and capital markets access.
Relevance 90·Dependency 90·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“A worsening of the U.S. economy and volatile or recessionary conditions in the U.S. or abroad could negatively affect our business or our access to capital markets.”
Interest Rates
Demand Driver
Net interest income and margin are directly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations; 2025 NIM expansion partially offset by lower rates on variable-rate earning assets.
Relevance 90·Dependency 80·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“interest rate fluctuations and competitive conditions within the marketplace”
Scotiabank
Supplier Dependency
Scotiabank holds ~14.9% of Key's common shares and designates up to two directors, potentially influencing policies, shareholder matters, and M&A, and may deter takeovers.
Relevance 90·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“As a result of the amount of common shares that are currently held by Scotiabank, together with its director designation rights, Scotiabank may be able to influence our policies and operations and impact matters requiring shareholder approval.”
Interest Rates
Revenue Exposure
NIM expansion of 53 bps to 2.69% in 2025 driven by lower deposit costs and reinvestment of maturing low-yield assets into higher-yielding investments; medium-term NIM target 3.25%+.
Relevance 88·Dependency 78·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“These increases primarily reflect lower interest-bearing deposit costs, the reinvestment of proceeds from maturing low-yielding investment securities, fixed-rate loans, and swaps into higher-yielding investments”
United States
Revenue Exposure
Majority of revenues generated in the US from US-domiciled customers; foreign revenue immaterial.
Relevance 85·Dependency 90·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“We derive the majority of our revenues within the United States from customers domiciled in the United States.”
Interest rates
Demand Driver
Interest rate risk can adversely affect net interest income; rate environment affects CRE market and borrower refinancing capacity.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“We are subject to interest rate risk, which could adversely affect net interest income.”
Third-party vendor dependency
Supplier Dependency
Key depends on vendors and their downstream service providers for significant operational functions including loan processing, and cannot fully control or monitor their cybersecurity and viability.
Relevance 85·Dependency 75·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“We depend on third party service providers and their downstream service providers to implement adequate controls and safeguards to protect against and report cyber incidents.”
Commercial and industrial loans
Revenue Exposure
Largest loan category at $55,877M average in 2025 and driver of commercial loan mix shift; FY2026 guidance expects average commercial loans up ~5%.
Relevance 85·Dependency 75·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Commercial and industrial (d) $55,877 $3,347 5.99 %$53,951 $3,378 6.26 %$59,379 $3,444 5.80 %”
Commercial real estate borrowers
Customer Exposure
Approximately 72% of loans are commercial (C&I, CRE, leases); CRE borrowers concentrated in multifamily create earnings sensitivity to real estate fundamentals.
Relevance 85·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“A large portion of our clients are active in real estate, with most focused on the multifamily space, which has been the best performing real estate sector over the cycle.”
Federal Reserve stress capital buffer framework
Regulatory Exposure
KeyCorp's 3.2% stress capital buffer constrains capital distributions; failure to meet it limits dividends and discretionary bonuses.
Relevance 80·Dependency 75·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“A firm will be subject to limitations on capital distributions and discretionary bonus payments if it does not satisfy all minimum capital requirements and its stress capital buffer requirement.”
Regulatory scrutiny
Legal Exposure
Banking regulators focus on bank models and compensation practices; model failure or pay-practice deficiencies could result in increased regulatory scrutiny or enforcement action.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The failure or inadequacy of a model may result in increased regulatory scrutiny on us or may result in an enforcement action or proceeding against us by one of our regulators.”
Consumer deposit customers
Demand Driver
Deposit growth of $3.1 billion in 2025 reflected consumer deposit growth, improving funding mix as wholesale borrowings declined.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Average deposits totaled $149.3 billion for 2025, an increase of $3.1 billion compared to 2024, reflecting growth in consumer deposits.”
Multifamily housing / commercial real estate market
Demand Driver
Multifamily oversupply in certain urban markets pressures borrower rents, cash flows, and debt service, affecting loan performance.
Relevance 75·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“oversupply of multifamily housing is a concern in certain urban markets. This oversupply has resulted in higher vacancy rates and put pressure on some borrowers to achieve underwritten rents.”
Artificial Intelligence
Technology Dependency
AI both escalates cyber threat sophistication (generative AI social engineering) and is used in Key's own models, introducing complexity such as algorithmic bias and interpretation difficulty.
Relevance 75·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the increasing use of third-party financial data aggregators and emerging technologies, including the use of AI, introduces new information security risks and exposure for us”
Scotiabank
Customer Exposure
Scotiabank holds a significant equity interest and board designation rights, creating strategic influence risk over KeyCorp.
Relevance 70·Dependency 50·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Scotiabank holds a significant equity interest in our business and may exercise influence over us, including through its ability to designate up to two directors to our Board of Directors.”
Regulatory constraints on competition
Competitive Exposure
Some competitors enjoy fewer regulatory constraints and lower cost structures; regulatory/technology change could increase competition.
Relevance 70·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“some of our competitors enjoy fewer regulatory constraints and may have lower cost structures”
Financial technology (fintech) competition
Competitive Exposure
Technology advances lowered barriers to entry, enabling nonbank/fintech companies to compete in financial services.
Relevance 68·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“technology advances have lowered barriers to entry, enabling more companies, including nonbank companies, to provide financial services”
Merchant customers (card processing)
Customer Exposure
Key provides card transaction processing services to merchant customers and may bear losses and penalties from merchant data breaches under payment network agreements.
Relevance 65·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Key also provides card transaction processing services to some merchant customers under agreements we have with payment networks.”
Mass affluent wealth management clients
Demand Driver
Record $70.0 billion AUM driven by mass affluent segment sales production; frontline banker staff expanded in wealth management.
Relevance 65·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“a record high, reflecting the continued strong sales production in our mass affluent segment”
Employee turnover and labor shortages
Cost Driver
Key relies on employees to design, manage, and operate systems and controls; turnover or labor shortages exacerbate operational and human error risks.
Relevance 60·Dependency 55·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“These concerns may be further exacerbated by employee turnover or labor shortages.”
Investment in technology and infrastructure
Demand Driver
Successful competition depends on the ability to invest in technology and infrastructure and attract/retain talent.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Successfully competing in our markets also depends on our ability to invest in technology and infrastructure, execute transactions reliably and effectively, maintain and enhance our reputation, and attract, retain, and motivate talented employees”
Wage investment and compensation
Cost Driver
Compensation investments made in response to market trends, competitive pressures, and a dynamic talent market; 95% of employees earn $20+/hour.
Relevance 50·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“In recent years, we have made other compensation adjustments in response to market trends, competitive pressures, and a dynamic market for talent.”
Russia-Ukraine war
Geopolitical Exposure
War impacts global transportation and materials availability, cited as a risk to stable asset prices and loan collateral values.
Relevance 50·Dependency 30·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war on global transportation and the availability of materials”