Copper is 75% of 2025 revenues; US sales priced off COMEX, South America/Indonesia off LME monthly averages.
Relevance 98·Dependency 95·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Our consolidated revenues for 2025 primarily included sales of copper (75%), gold (15%) and molybdenum (8%).”
Grasberg Block Cave underground mine
Revenue Exposure
The mud rush incident halted Grasberg Block Cave production, suspending smelting and reducing 2025/2026 sales volumes.
Relevance 98·Dependency 85·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“we expect the incident to have a significant impact on our 2026 operating and financial results”
FCX's largest revenue line is copper cathode ($8,147M) and concentrate ($6,310M); revenues and derivatives are priced off LME/COMEX copper prices with embedded derivative gains of $534M in 2025.
Relevance 95·Dependency 95·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Copper:
Cathode$8,147 $8,317 $6,588
Concentrate6,310 6,734 7,132”
Indonesia
Geopolitical Exposure
Indonesian regulations (export license expiration, March 2025 export proceeds regulation) directly constrain PTFI's ability to produce, export and repatriate cash.
Relevance 95·Dependency 90·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“requires 100% of PTFI’s export proceeds to be deposited into Indonesia banks for 12 months”
PTFI IUPK mining rights (2031 initial term, extension through 2041)
Legal Exposure
A large share of Indonesian reserves lies beyond 2031; failure to obtain IUPK extension would strand reserves.
Relevance 92·Dependency 85·Confidence 96
Source evidence
“If PTFI does not fulfill its defined fiscal and other obligations to the Indonesia government as set forth in the IUPK, the IUPK may not be extended from 2031 through 2041”
Indonesia
Geopolitical Exposure
Indonesia hosts Grasberg (22% of copper reserves, 97% of gold reserves, 98% of gold production); 2025 mud rush disrupted operations; IUPK extension beyond 2041 is a key risk.
Relevance 92·Dependency 65·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“PTFI's failure to meet its commitments to achieve the extension of its IUPK.”
PTFI downstream processing facilities (Eastern Java smelter) / PT Smelting
Supplier Dependency
With no export licenses, PTFI's entire concentrate output depends on domestic downstream facilities being operational.
Relevance 90·Dependency 90·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“if the downstream processing facilities are not operational when copper concentrate is available, PTFI could be required to reduce production levels or be subject to increased costs”
Copper
Raw Material Dependency
Copper concentrate availability and processing drive PTFI production, smelting rates, and sales; FCX's core product is refined copper.
Relevance 90·Dependency 85·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“smelting operations in Indonesia at both PTFI’s smelter and PT Smelting were temporarily suspended during fourth-quarter 2025 as a result of limited copper concentrate availability”
Gold revenues of $3,900M in 2025; provisional pricing based on the London PM gold price creates embedded derivatives.
Relevance 75·Dependency 70·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“Gold3,900 4,446 3,472”
Indigenous Peoples / community consent
Legal Exposure
Loss of community or Indigenous Peoples support could block expansions or new projects and result in loss of rights to explore, operate or develop projects, affecting production growth.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“could lead to delays and/or increased costs if expansions or new projects are blocked either temporarily or for extended periods”
Artificial intelligence / data centers
Demand Driver
Management cites data centers and AI growth as a driver of growing copper demand, alongside electrification and renewable power.
Relevance 75·Dependency 40·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) growth, increased defense spending and growing connectivity globally.”
Extreme weather (floods, drought, geotechnical instability)
Cost Driver
Heavy rainfall and dry periods at PTFI, plus geotechnical instabilities linked to weather, can suspend operations and raise costs.
Relevance 70·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The PTFI project area receives considerable rainfall that makes it susceptible to periodic floods and mudslides, the nature and magnitude of which cannot be predicted”
Indonesia export regulation
Regulatory Exposure
PTFI's export proceeds were required to be temporarily deposited in Indonesian banks for 90 days ($0.7B in 2024 restricted cash) and assurance bonds support downstream processing commitments ($0.1B); PTFI export duties of $337M in 2025.
Relevance 70·Dependency 60·Confidence 88
Source evidence
“(i) $0.7 billion associated with a portion of PTFI’s export proceeds required to be temporarily deposited in Indonesia banks for 90 days in accordance with a previous Indonesia regulation”
Copper prices may be affected by demand from China, the largest consumer of refined copper, amid US-China tensions and uncertainty about China's economy.
Relevance 70·Dependency 35·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“copper prices may be affected by demand from China, which is currently the largest consumer of refined copper in the world”
Cybersecurity
Technology Dependency
Increasingly automated and integrated operations heighten cybersecurity exposure, and FCX lacks cyber insurance.
Relevance 65·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“We do not maintain cyber risk insurance, and the lack of insurance coverage could adversely affect our cash flows and overall profitability”
Diesel/fuel energy
Cost Driver
Diesel and other energy prices are cited as volatile consumable costs impacting production costs.
Relevance 65·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“as well as fuel and energy costs (for example, the price of diesel)”
Sustainability disclosure standards
Regulatory Exposure
Evolving sustainability disclosure obligations require management time and expense; non-compliance or perceived non-compliance could materially harm business, cost of capital and stock price.
Relevance 60·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Maintaining adequate systems and processes in place to comply with the various tracking and disclosure obligations ... will require management’s time and expense.”
US Dollar
Currency Exposure
FCX is exposed to credit loss from financial institutions for commodity, foreign exchange and interest rate swaps, with maximum credit exposure of $289 million at Dec 31, 2025.
Relevance 55·Dependency 45·Confidence 75
Source evidence
“FCX is exposed to credit loss when financial institutions with which it has entered into derivative transactions (commodity, foreign exchange and interest rate swaps) are unable to pay.”
US dollar
Currency Exposure
Commodity price volatility drivers include the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to foreign currencies; US copper sales priced off COMEX.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to foreign currencies”
Customers requiring sustainability standards
Competitive Exposure
Customers may require additional sustainability procedures before doing business, risking preferential buying of competitors' products.
Relevance 50·Dependency 40·Confidence 80
Source evidence
“which could lead to preferential buying of our competitors’ products based on perceived sustainability-related practices”