Olive Garden
Revenue Exposure
Olive Garden is the largest brand, generating $5,594.8M of $13,210.9M FY2026 sales (~42%), with SRS +7.3%.
Relevance 95·Dependency 85·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Olive Garden$5,594.8 $5,212.9 7.3 %4.0 %$5.8 $5.6”
Consumer discretionary spending
Demand Driver
Dining is discretionary; recession, inflation, energy prices, and interest rates affect guest traffic and spending.
Relevance 90·Dependency 78·Confidence 94
Source evidence
“Economic uncertainty has caused and may continue to cause guests to make fewer discretionary purchases, and any significant decrease in our guest traffic or average profit per transaction will negatively impact our financial performance.”
Labor market pressure
Cost Driver
Competitive US labor market and minimum wage increases drive wage inflation and staffing risk.
Relevance 85·Dependency 75·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“The market for labor in the United States is competitive and has resulted in pressure on wages and may continue to do so in the future.”
LongHorn Steakhouse
Revenue Exposure
LongHorn Steakhouse produced $3,423.0M FY2026 sales with the strongest SRS growth (+13.1%), driven by check +3.4% and guest counts +3.7%.
Relevance 85·Dependency 70·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“LongHorn Steakhouse$3,423.0 $3,025.5 13.1 %7.2 %$5.6 $5.2”
Higher than normal inflation across food, labor, health care, and utilities was experienced in fiscal 2026 and pricing offsets may be constrained by competitive dynamics.
Relevance 82·Dependency 70·Confidence 94
Source evidence
“We have experienced and may continue to experience higher than normal inflationary conditions with respect to most or all of these costs during fiscal 2026.”
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Technology Dependency
Darden relies on Uber as its exclusive multi-year delivery partner, with delivery handled by Uber across Darden channels and ongoing rollouts in fiscal 2026.
Relevance 78·Dependency 45·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“The agreement enables our guests to order delivery via Darden restaurant channels, with delivery handled by Uber.”
Tariffs and trade policy
Cost Driver
Tariffs and restrictive trade policies on imported food products like produce and seafood could raise costs and impact supply.
Relevance 75·Dependency 60·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“The introduction of, or changes to, tariffs or adverse impacts resulting from restrictive trade policies or trade disputes on imported food products, such as produce and seafood, could increase our costs and possibly impact the supply of those products.”
FY2026 food & beverage costs rose on 1.2% inflation (partially offset by 0.9% pricing leverage); labor and restaurant expenses also experienced inflation impacts.
Relevance 75·Dependency 55·Confidence 94
Source evidence
“primarily due to a 1.2 percent impact from inflation, partially offset by a 0.9 percent impact from pricing leverage.”
Interest rates
Demand Driver
Rising interest rates and borrowing costs may reduce guests' disposable income and dining frequency.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“credit card, home mortgage, and other borrowing costs increase with rising interest rates, our guests may have lower disposable income and reduce the frequency of their dining occasions”
Geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East)
Demand Driver
Armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could affect the economy, consumer confidence, and costs via security measures.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“we cannot predict the effects that actual or threatened armed conflicts, including the ongoing armed conflicts in the Ukraine and the Middle East, terrorist attacks... could have on our operations, the economy or consumer confidence generally.”
Coffee is among principal ingredient costs hedged with derivatives; derivative value volatility can cause gross margin and net earnings volatility.
Relevance 60·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“We use or may use derivatives to hedge price risk for some of our principal ingredient, labor, and energy costs, including, but not limited to coffee, butter, wheat, soybean oil, pork, beef, diesel fuel, gasoline, and natural gas.”
Wheat is a principal ingredient cost hedged with derivatives; mark-to-market changes flow through cost of sales.
Relevance 60·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“hedge price risk for some of our principal ingredient, labor, and energy costs, including, but not limited to coffee, butter, wheat, soybean oil, pork, beef, diesel fuel, gasoline, and natural gas”
Gift cards
Revenue Exposure
Unearned revenues primarily represent unredeemed gift cards; breakage income depends on redemption pattern estimates over roughly 12 years.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Unearned revenues primarily represent our liability for gift cards that have been sold but not yet redeemed.”
Natural Gas
Commodity Exposure
Natural gas is an energy input cost hedged with derivatives; derivative volatility can affect earnings.
Relevance 55·Dependency 35·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“coffee, butter, wheat, soybean oil, pork, beef, diesel fuel, gasoline, and natural gas”
Off-premise catering customers
Customer Exposure
Olive Garden's FY2026 SRS growth included a 0.9% contribution from off-premise catering sales growth.
Relevance 55·Dependency 30·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“included a 0.9 percent increase in off-premise catering sales”
Franchised restaurants
Customer Exposure
Franchise royalties, advertising contributions, and franchisee inventory purchases generate recurring revenue tied to franchisee net sales under generally 10-year agreements.
Relevance 50·Dependency 30·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Franchise royalties, which are a percentage of net sales of franchised restaurants, are recognized as revenue in the period the related sales occur.”