Merchandise rail business
Revenue Exposure
Merchandise is CSX's largest revenue line at 62% of 2025 revenue across seven diverse end markets.
Relevance 95·Dependency 62·Confidence 98
Source evidence
“generated $8.8 billion in revenue (62% of revenue) in 2025”
Norfolk Southern Railway
Competitive Exposure
Norfolk Southern is CSXT's primary rail competitor; its pending merger with Union Pacific into a transcontinental network would intensify competition.
Relevance 85·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“CSXT’s primary rail competitor is Norfolk Southern Railway ... During 2025, Norfolk Southern Railway entered into an agreement to merge with Union Pacific Railroad to form the nation's only transcontinental rail network, which requires the approval of the Surface Transportation Board.”
Coal generated $1.9B of 2025 revenue (-15% y/y) with RPU down 13%; export coal driven by global benchmark rates was the largest contributor to the consolidated revenue decline.
Relevance 85·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“primarily due to declines in export coal revenue, which includes the impact of lower global benchmark rates”
Surface Transportation Board
Regulatory Exposure
STB regulates routes, fuel surcharges, rates for non-exempt traffic, and line abandonments; new rules on competitive access or revenue adequacy could materially harm CSX.
Relevance 80·Dependency 65·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“Any new rules from the STB regarding, among other things, competitive access or revenue adequacy could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition, results of operations and liquidity”
Intermodal business
Demand Driver
Intermodal competes with long-haul trucking on cost and environmental grounds, serving consumer goods in containers east of the Mississippi River.
Relevance 80·Dependency 15·Confidence 96
Source evidence
“transports mainly manufactured consumer goods in containers, providing customers with truck-like service for longer shipments”
Labor is a significant cost in self-constructed track replacement, CSX's largest capex category; ~16,900 of ~23,000 employees are rail union labor.
Relevance 75·Dependency 74·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“Labor is a significant cost in self-constructed track replacement work.”
Coal business
Revenue Exposure
Coal at 13% of revenue is tied to domestic electricity generation and export steelmaking demand.
Relevance 70·Dependency 13·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Most of the export coal the Company transports is used for steelmaking, while the majority of domestic coal the Company ships is used for electricity generation.”
Intermodal (port/international volumes)
Demand Driver
Intermodal was the only major market with volume growth (+4%) in 2025, driven by international port volumes and key customer wins; total intermodal revenue $2,073M.
Relevance 65·Dependency 45·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“Intermodal volume increased primarily due to international shipments driven by higher port volumes and growth with key customers.”
Power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants
Customer Exposure
Coal carloads serve electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants.
Relevance 65·Dependency 11·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“The Company transports domestic coal, coke and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants”
Union labor agreements
Cost Driver
~73% of the workforce is unionized under Railway Labor Act agreements; labor costs and negotiated agreements are a material cost driver.
Relevance 60·Dependency 70·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“Approximately 16,900 of the Company's approximately 23,000 employees are members of a rail labor union and covered by national agreements with the Class I railroads or CSX-specific agreements.”
Common carrier mandate
Regulatory Exposure
CSXT must haul hazardous materials regardless of risk under the common carrier mandate, creating tail liability for accident costs potentially exceeding insurance.
Relevance 60·Dependency 50·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“CSXT is required to transport certain hazardous materials under the legal duty referred to as the common carrier mandate regardless of risk or potential exposure to loss.”
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Supplier Dependency
CSX jointly operates shared Conrail assets with Norfolk Southern under multiple operating agreements, implying ongoing operational interdependence.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Shared Assets Area Operating Agreement for North Jersey, dated as of June 1, 1999, by and among Consolidated Rail Corporation, CSX Transportation, Inc. and Norfolk Southern Railway Company”
Labor and Fringe expenses rose $97M, including $67M driven by inflation; inflation also offset other savings in purchased services.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“An increase of $67 million was driven by inflation.”
Utility plants (domestic coal)
Demand Driver
Domestic coal volume increased due to higher shipments to utility plants, partially offset by lower shipments to steel and river/lake terminals.
Relevance 60·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Domestic coal increased due to higher shipments to utility plants”
Electricity-generating power plants (coal)
Customer Exposure
Majority of domestic coal shipped by CSX is used for electricity generation, linking the coal franchise (13% of 2025 revenue) to utility demand.
Relevance 55·Dependency 45·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“The Company transports domestic coal, coke and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants ... the majority of domestic coal the Company ships is used for electricity generation.”
Fuel expense of $1,095M decreased $73M due to a 7% decrease in locomotive fuel prices; fuel expense is largely driven by market diesel prices and locomotive consumption.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Fuel expense decreased $73 million primarily due to a 7% decrease in locomotive fuel prices.”
Severe weather
Cost Driver
Severe winter weather and the Howard Street tunnel work drove $53M of higher purchased services costs including rerouting; weather is also a standing network-difficulty risk.
Relevance 55·Dependency 35·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“An increase of $53 million was due to the effects of network disruptions and congestion, primarily driven by work on the Howard Street tunnel and severe winter weather.”
Manufactured consumer goods shippers
Demand Driver
Intermodal mainly transports manufactured consumer goods in containers, serving all major markets east of the Mississippi River via ~30 terminals.
Relevance 55·Dependency 15·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“serves all major markets east of the Mississippi River and transports mainly manufactured consumer goods in containers”