WTI crude oil
Commodity Exposure
Sales prices for crude oil and other products are the most significant factor impacting revenues and growth; 2025 WTI ranged $55-$80/bbl
Relevance 95·Dependency 95·Confidence 98
Source evidence
“Among the most significant factors impacting our revenues, operating results and future rate of growth are the sales prices for crude oil, bitumen, LNG, natural gas and NGLs”
Crude oil (WTI)
Commodity Exposure
Company unhedged; operating cash flows highly dependent on crude oil prices; cost of supply framework keyed to WTI.
Relevance 95·Dependency 95·Confidence 98
Source evidence
“Our short- and long-term operating cash flows are highly dependent on the prices for crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG and NGLs.”
Marathon Oil
Revenue Exposure
$16.5B all-stock acquisition added Lower 48 and Equatorial Guinea operations; pro forma 2024 combined revenues $63,121M and net income $10,557M
Relevance 95·Dependency 85·Confidence 98
Source evidence
“an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations across the Lower 48 and in Equatorial Guinea”
Natural gas / LNG
Commodity Exposure
LNG developments and offtake/regas positions are core growth strategy; cash flows depend on natural gas and LNG prices.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Our diverse, low cost of supply portfolio includes resource-rich unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia; global LNG developments; oil sands in Canada”
Midstream infrastructure availability
Supplier Dependency
Production delivery depends on third-party gathering, processing, transportation and pipeline capacity and diluents; unavailability can raise costs or force curtailments
Relevance 80·Dependency 85·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“we may incur increased costs to transport our crude oil, bitumen, LNG, natural gas and NGLs for sale; we may be forced to curtail our production”
Reserve economics / DD&A
Revenue Exposure
Reserve estimates under UOP DD&A are price-dependent; 10% lower proved reserves would increase 2025 before-tax DD&A ~$1,250 million on ~$80B PP&E
Relevance 80·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Generally, our proved reserves decrease as prices decline and increase as prices rise”
Surmont (Canada)
Revenue Exposure
100% ownership of Surmont oil sands asset after $3.0B acquisition of remaining 50% from TotalEnergies EP Canada
Relevance 75·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“we completed our acquisition of the remaining 50 percent working interest in Surmont, an asset in our Canada segment”
Energy sector competition
Competitive Exposure
Competes with private, public and state-owned E&P companies and for materials, equipment and specialized personnel
Relevance 75·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The exploration and production of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and NGLs is a highly competitive business”
U.S. LNG export authorization regime
Regulatory Exposure
LNG export permitting pauses/approval delays may adversely impact the global LNG business
Relevance 75·Dependency 60·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“This pause and other difficulties in the regulatory approval processes may have an extended adverse impact on our global LNG business”
IT/OT and SCADA systems
Technology Dependency
Increasing reliance on IT/OT including SCADA systems means cyber incidents could disrupt domestic and international oil and gas operations
Relevance 70·Dependency 75·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Our increasing reliance on IT in our production, distribution and marketing systems may allow cybersecurity threats to disrupt our oil and gas operations, both domestically and abroad”
LNG portfolio
Demand Driver
LNG portfolio building is a key climate-strategy element because LNG can displace higher-emissions fuels such as coal for power generation
Relevance 70·Dependency 65·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Building an attractive LNG portfolio as an important component of responsibly meeting global energy demand due to LNG's opportunity to displace higher-emissions fuels such as coal for electricity generation”
Alaska (Kuparuk River and Prudhoe Bay units)
Revenue Exposure
$296M bolt-on acquisition increased working interests in Kuparuk River Unit (~5%) and Prudhoe Bay Unit (~0.4%)
Relevance 70·Dependency 65·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“increased our working interest by approximately 5 percent in the Kuparuk River Unit and approximately 0.4 percent in the Prudhoe Bay Unit”
Climate policy and offsets
Cost Driver
Executing Climate-related Risk Strategy could be costly; expects to purchase emission credits/offsets which may be insufficiently supplied and increasingly expensive
Relevance 65·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“we could incur increasingly greater expenses related to our purchase of such offsets”
Chevron U.S.A. Inc.
Competitive Exposure
Counterparty (seller) in Alaska working interest acquisition alongside Union Oil Company of California; also a competing major in Alaska
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“from Chevron U.S.A. Inc. and Union Oil Company of California for $296 million”
ConocoPhillips deferred tax positions
Tax Exposure
Deferred taxes not recorded on permanently reinvested cumulative translation adjustment in certain foreign subsidiaries and corporate joint ventures
Relevance 50·Dependency 40·Confidence 80
Source evidence
“deferred taxes on income and temporary differences related to the cumulative translation adjustment considered to be permanently reinvested in certain foreign subsidiaries and foreign corporate joint ventures”