Cruise passengers
Revenue Exposure
Revenue derives from passenger ticket ($17,419M) and onboard and other ($9,202M) sales to cruise customers, with substantial customer deposits ($6,831M) providing cash before voyages.
Relevance 95·Dependency 85·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Customer deposits6,831 6,425”
Consumer spending
Demand Driver
Cruise demand declines when economic climate, inflation, unemployment or income levels worsen.
Relevance 90·Dependency 75·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, such as inflation, global or regional recessions, higher unemployment and underemployment rates and declines in income levels”
Fincantieri
Supplier Dependency
Ship construction contracts with Fincantieri (Italy) support the seven-ship newbuild pipeline through 2033.
Relevance 90·Dependency 75·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Our ship construction contracts are with Fincantieri in Italy and Meyer Werft in Germany.”
Meyer Werft
Supplier Dependency
Ship construction contracts with Meyer Werft (Germany) support the seven-ship newbuild pipeline through 2033.
Relevance 90·Dependency 75·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“Our ship construction contracts are with Fincantieri in Italy and Meyer Werft in Germany.”
Credit conditions
Legal Exposure
High debt requires significant cash to service; covenant breaches can trigger cross-defaults, acceleration and actions against collateral.
Relevance 85·Dependency 85·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Borrowings under our other debt instruments that contain cross-default provisions may also be accelerated or become payable on demand”
Fuel costs, fuel-type changes and supply availability affect itineraries and operating costs; emissions regulations add constraints.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“regulatory requirements including emissions-related regulations, supply disruptions and related infrastructure needs, which make it difficult to predict the future cost and availability of fuel”
consumer spending
Demand Driver
Macro conditions including inflation and higher interest rates could reduce demand for cruises.
Relevance 85·Dependency 70·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“pandemics, inflation, higher interest rates and other general concerns impacting the ability or desire of people to travel could lead to a decline in demand for cruises”
Increases in fuel costs, changes in fuel types and fuel supply availability may adversely impact itineraries and costs.
Relevance 85·Dependency 70·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“Increases in fuel costs, changes in the types of fuel consumed and availability of fuel supply may adversely impact our scheduled itineraries and costs.”
Geopolitical risk
Geopolitical Exposure
War, terrorism, political instability, travel advisories and sanctions have significantly adversely affected and may affect business.
Relevance 85·Dependency 60·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“pandemics, government travel advisories and travel restrictions, political instability and civil unrest, terrorist attacks, war and military action and other general concerns”
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd.
Competitive Exposure
Named principal cruise competitor among top four operators with ~80% of industry capacity.
Relevance 85·Dependency 50·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“we, along with our principal cruise competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. and MSC Cruises, represented approximately 80% of the cruise industry capacity”
Royal Caribbean Group
Competitive Exposure
Named principal cruise competitor; top four operators control ~80% of industry capacity.
Relevance 85·Dependency 50·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“we, along with our principal cruise competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. and MSC Cruises, represented approximately 80% of the cruise industry capacity”
MSC Cruises
Competitive Exposure
Named principal cruise competitor among top four operators with ~80% of industry capacity.
Relevance 85·Dependency 50·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“we, along with our principal cruise competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. and MSC Cruises, represented approximately 80% of the cruise industry capacity”
fuel (bunker)
Commodity Exposure
Fuel cost changes identified as a known trend likely to impact profitability; FY2025 fuel expense was $1,207M (NA) plus $600M (Europe).
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“We believe changes in the cost of fuel, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and new and evolving regulatory requirements related to the reduction of GHG emissions are reasonably likely to impact our profitability”
Fuel is a disclosed cruise and tour operating expense line of $1,808M in FY2025, declining from $2,047M in 2023.
Relevance 80·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Fuel1,808 2,007 2,047”
Consumer spending
Demand Driver
As a leisure travel company, revenue growth from $21,593M (2023) to $26,622M (2025) and rising customer deposits reflect discretionary consumer demand for cruises.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Total Revenues26,622 25,021 21,593”
Cybersecurity
Technology Dependency
Operations depend on IT systems; ransomware, malware and AI-enhanced attacks can disrupt shipboard and shoreside operations and trigger fines and litigation.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“These malicious attacks can vary in scope and aim to disrupt or compromise our shoreside and shipboard operations by targeting our key operating systems or those of our third-party service providers”
EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)
Regulatory Exposure
Subject to EU ETS since Jan 1, 2024 with three-year phase-in; cost $91M in 2025, full scope in 2026.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“We became subject to the EU Emissions Trading System (“ETS”) on January 1, 2024, which includes a three-year phase-in period.”
Extreme weather
Revenue Exposure
Weather/natural disasters impact guest source markets, itineraries, ports and exclusive islands, especially in the Caribbean, and can force cruise cancellations.
Relevance 75·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“adverse weather or other natural disasters have impacted and may in the future impact the sourcing of our guests from affected regions”
Company cites fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates as reasonably likely to impact profitability; majority of sourced revenue is US guests but operations span Europe.
Relevance 70·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“changes in the cost of fuel, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and new and evolving regulatory requirements related to the reduction of GHG emissions are reasonably likely to impact our profitability”
Energy transition
Regulatory Exposure
Emissions aspirations depend on low/non-GHG energy and technologies not yet at scale, evolving sustainability regulations and future financing availability.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the availability of future financing and the availability of suppliers that can meet our sustainability standards”
decarbonization / GHG regulation
Regulatory Exposure
Net zero 2050 aspiration aligned with IMO 2023 strategy; regulatory changes may affect ship useful lives and residual values; investments in LNG ships, shore power, scrubbers.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“It is uncertain how proposed and possible future regulatory changes, as well as our 2050 net zero emissions aspiration, may impact our ships’ useful lives and residual values”
DLC cross-guarantees
Legal Exposure
Under DLC deeds of guarantee, each company effectively cross-guarantees all indebtedness of the other; cash flows and assets of one company may be used to pay obligations of the other.
Relevance 65·Dependency 70·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“the cash flows and assets of one company are required to be used to pay the obligations of the other company, if necessary”
Travel restrictions and visas
Demand Driver
Travel bans, border-control regulations and visa issuance limits constrain guest movement and force itinerary changes.
Relevance 65·Dependency 45·Confidence 88
Source evidence
“travel bans to and from certain geographical areas, voluntary changes to our itineraries in light of geopolitical events, government policies increasing the difficulty of travel and limitations on issuing international travel visas”
Greenhouse gas regulation
Regulatory Exposure
Greenhouse gas regulatory expense doubled to $91M in FY2025 from $46M in FY2024, a rising regulatory cost of cruise operations.
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“Greenhouse gas regulatory expense91 46 —”
UK court and regulatory approvals
Regulatory Exposure
The proposed DLC unification is conditioned on shareholder approval and receipt of regulatory and UK court approvals.
Relevance 55·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“These proposals will be subject to certain conditions, including the approval of shareholders and receipt of regulatory and UK court approvals.”
Payroll and related
Cost Driver
Payroll and related expense is a major operating cost line at $2,589M in FY2025, rising from $2,373M in 2023.
Relevance 55·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Payroll and related2,589 2,464 2,373”
US Dollar
Currency Exposure
Foreign currency translation adjustment of $137M in FY2025 other comprehensive income reflects translation exposure of non-USD operations; dual listing spans NYSE and London Stock Exchange.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Change in foreign currency translation adjustment137 (3)52”