Visa and Mastercard
Competitive Exposure
Visa and Mastercard's dominant position, scale, resources, marketing and pricing advantage their issuers/acquirers and pressure AXP's merchant acceptance.
Relevance 90·Dependency 70·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“card issuers and acquirers on the Visa and Mastercard networks may be able to benefit from the dominant position, scale, resources, marketing and pricing of those networks”
Small business and corporate clients
Customer Exposure
Approximately 41% of worldwide billed business in 2025 came from small business and corporate clients, whose spending depends on the business investment climate.
Relevance 90·Dependency 65·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“spending by small business and corporate clients, which comprised approximately 41 percent of our worldwide billed business during 2025”
AI & ML including agentic commerce
Technology Dependency
Generative AI and agentic commerce may transform payments; competitors' better AI use could disadvantage AXP while AXP faces model, governance and regulatory risks.
Relevance 85·Dependency 60·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“The use of AI & ML technologies, including generative AI and agentic commerce, has increased rapidly and may be transformative to the payments industry”
Geopolitical instability
Geopolitical Exposure
Multinational revenue base means conflicts, sanctions, tariffs and US-China tensions affect spending, travel and credit demand; AXP exited Russia and Belarus.
Relevance 85·Dependency 55·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we exited our business operations in Russia and Belarus”
Millennial and Gen-Z Card Members
Demand Driver
Younger cohorts are the fastest-growing, driving USCS billed business growth of 8%
Relevance 82·Dependency 55·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“continued momentum in spending by Millennial and Gen-Z Card Members, our fastest-growing cohorts”
Privacy, data protection and AI & ML regulations
Legal Exposure
Evolving privacy/data protection/AI regulations across jurisdictions raise compliance costs and could restrict AXP's integrated payments platform and products
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“compliance and technology costs will continue to increase”
Third-party service providers
Supplier Dependency
Operations depend on many third parties and their service providers; disruptions, weaknesses, or common-provider failures could compromise card acquisition and services across AXP's global network
Relevance 75·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“in certain cases there may be limited alternatives or high costs for diversification”
AI / machine learning models
Technology Dependency
AXP increasingly uses AI-leveraging models for decision making and estimates; limited transparency could make errors hard to identify, affecting results of operations
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Additionally, we increasingly use models that leverage AI, which are subject to additional risks such as biased or inaccurate results or lowered interpretability.”
OECD global minimum tax (15%)
Tax Exposure
OECD 15% global minimum tax increased AXP's tax liability in 2025 and is expected to continue to increase it in 2026, raising effective tax rate
Relevance 75·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“The global minimum tax increased our tax liability in 2025 as it came into effect in various jurisdictions where we operate”
Refreshed U.S. Consumer and Business Platinum Cards
Demand Driver
Platinum refresh drove strong customer demand and engagement, supporting 18% net card fee growth
Relevance 75·Dependency 55·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“We launched our refreshed U.S. Consumer and Business Platinum Cards at the end of the third quarter and have seen strong customer demand and engagement.”
Taxation
Regulatory Exposure
Complex and interpretive tax laws across jurisdictions create exposure through unrecognized tax benefits and deferred tax asset realization judgments; realized benefits can differ from recognized amounts.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Tax benefits ultimately realized can differ from amounts previously recognized due to uncertainties, with any such differences generally impacting the provision for income tax.”
VAT and tax assessments
Legal Exposure
VAT challenges in multiple countries and IRS transfer pricing audit could result in significant additional tax and interest liabilities
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the tax authorities may determine that we owe additional taxes or apply existing laws and regulations more broadly, which could result in a significant increase in liabilities for taxes and interest in excess of accrued liabilities.”
AI and agentic commerce regulation
Regulatory Exposure
New laws on AI & ML and agentic commerce may impose burdensome requirements or restrict AXP's use of these technologies amid a fragmented legal landscape
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“New laws and regulations related to these technologies, as well as the application of existing laws and regulations, may restrict or impose burdensome and costly requirements on our ability to use them”
U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework
Competitive Exposure
New U.S. stablecoin framework may facilitate alternative payment/financing mechanisms, threatening discount revenue and net interest income, alongside interest-rate cap proposals.
Relevance 70·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“such as recent legislation in the U.S. establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, or by imposing constraints on payment or financing mechanisms, such as proposals to cap credit card interest rates”
Third-party card issuer and network partners
Revenue Exposure
GMNS manages partnerships with third-party card issuers, merchant acquirers and a prepaid/gift card program manager, licensing the Amex brand; service fees partly driven by network partnership revenues
Relevance 68·Dependency 55·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“GMNS manages our partnership relationships with third-party card issuers, merchant acquirers and a prepaid reloadable and gift card program manager, licensing the American Express brand”
USD (FX-adjusted reporting)
Revenue Exposure
Significant FX-adjusted vs reported differences (revenues +10% reported vs +9% FX-adjusted; ICS revenues +13% vs +11% FX-adjusted) show non-USD revenue exposure
Relevance 65·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Total revenues net of interest expense (FX-adjusted) (a)
66,08360,1796,146 9”
interest rates
Cost Driver
GMNS net interest income decreased primarily due to lower rates in international markets; ICS interest income partially offset by lower rates
Relevance 62·Dependency 55·Confidence 88
Source evidence
“Net interest income decreased, primarily due to lower interest rates in international markets, partially offset by higher interest expense credit”
Talent competition and labor regulation
Cost Driver
Competitive talent market, AI-driven skill shifts, immigration law changes and compensation regulatory review affect AXP's ability to attract and retain key personnel
Relevance 60·Dependency 55·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Advances in technology such as AI may increase competition for individuals with expertise in key skills and require our colleagues to adapt to new skills and methods of working.”
U.S. small and mid-sized enterprise (SME) Card Members
Customer Exposure
CS billed business growth of 3% reflects continued modest growth from U.S. SME Card Members
Relevance 60·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Commercial Services billed business grew 3 percent, reflecting continued modest growth from U.S. small and mid-sized enterprise (SME) Card Members.”