crude oil
Commodity Exposure
Oil price realizations directly drive revenue; $1.00/bbl change = ~$87 million annual revenue impact.
Relevance 95·Dependency 95·Confidence 98
Source evidence
“revenues, earnings, cash flow, capital investments and, ultimately, future rate of growth are highly dependent on the prices the Company receives for its crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs”
Crude Oil
Commodity Exposure
Company revenues, operating results, and carrying value of oil and gas properties depend highly on crude oil prices, which were volatile in 2025 ($55.44–$80.73/bbl NYMEX prompt month).
Relevance 95·Dependency 90·Confidence 97
Source evidence
“The Company’s revenues, operating results, future rate of growth, and carrying value of its oil and gas properties depend highly upon the prices it receives for its sales of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL products.”
Crude oil (NYMEX/Waha pricing)
Commodity Exposure
Revenue and capital program depend on oil prices; company may moderate 2026 Permian activity if oil prices decline and hedges Waha-Henry Hub basis on gas transport.
Relevance 95·Dependency 90·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Should oil prices decline, the Company may moderate activity in 2026 and further reduce capital spending.”
Crude oil
Commodity Exposure
Future commodity prices are the largest driver of cash flow variability used in impairment testing and UOP depreciation.
Relevance 90·Dependency 90·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Future production volumes and estimated future commodity prices are the largest drivers in the variability of future cash flows.”
Natural Gas
Commodity Exposure
Natural gas prices (NYMEX prompt month 2025 range $2.65–$9.86/MMBtu) directly drive revenues and third-party purchase/sale gains.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“the NYMEX daily settlement price for the prompt month natural gas contract in 2025 ranged from a high of $9.86 per MMBtu to a low of $2.65 per MMBtu.”
EGPC / Government of Egypt
Customer Exposure
Substantially all Egypt natural gas production is sold to EGPC under a new gas sales agreement effective January 2025; Egypt is ~37% of oil revenue.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Effective January 2025, substantially all of the Company’s natural gas production was sold to EGPC under the terms of this agreement.”
United States (vs international operations)
Revenue Exposure
38% of 2025 production and 26% of proved reserves outside the U.S. (primarily Egypt and U.K.) expose a significant portion of production to international political and economic risks including civil unrest, expropriation, exchange controls, and forced contract renegotiation.
Relevance 85·Dependency 62·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“approximately 38 percent of the Company’s 2025 production was outside the U.S., and approximately 26 percent of the Company’s estimated proved oil and gas reserves as of December 31, 2025, were located outside the U.S.”
North Sea
Geopolitical Exposure
North Sea cessation-of-production decisions drove the $796M 2024 impairment and continued inventory and drilling-suspension charges.
Relevance 85·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“This change significantly altered the Company's remaining oil and gas reserves in the North Sea and triggered an impairment assessment”
Geopolitical risk / OPEC+ / trade policy
Geopolitical Exposure
International conflicts, inflation, tariffs, global trade disputes, and OPEC+ actions contribute to commodity price volatility affecting supply and demand.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“current and potential tariffs or other trade barriers, global trade policies and disputes, and actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing nations, including OPEC+”
natural gas
Commodity Exposure
Gas realizations drive revenue ($0.10/Mcf = ~$33 million) and open derivatives create a $77 million net liability sensitive to price moves.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 96
Source evidence
“a $0.10 per Mcf change in the weighted average realized natural gas price would have increased or decreased revenues for the year by approximately $33 million”
EGPC (Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation)
Customer Exposure
Receivables from EGPC represent a monitored collection risk that could affect cash flow and credit losses.
Relevance 80·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the Company continues to closely monitor its exposure to EGPC, as payment patterns may vary over time.”
Offshore Suriname
Geopolitical Exposure
Significant exploration, appraisal, and development activities offshore Suriname involve long-cycle projects with heightened regulatory, execution, and host-government approval risks.
Relevance 80·Dependency 60·Confidence 93
Source evidence
“significant exploration, appraisal, and development activities offshore Suriname, which involve long-cycle projects with significant capital requirements and are subject to host-government approvals”
United Kingdom
Geopolitical Exposure
UK operations exposed to Energy Profits Levy-type regulations driving North Sea exit before 2030, evolving decommissioning rules (OPRED/OSPAR), and GHG-related fees.
Relevance 78·Dependency 60·Confidence 94
Source evidence
“determined that expected returns did not economically support making investments required under the combined impact of the regulations and now expects to cease production at its facilities in the North Sea prior to 2030.”
Midstream and transportation providers
Supplier Dependency
Ability to sell production, receive market prices, and meet volume commitments under transportation agreements depends on pipeline/gathering capacity and the financial health of midstream providers.
Relevance 75·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“the financial distress or insolvency of midstream or transportation providers that could reduce available capacity or disrupt service.”
Energy Transition
Demand Driver
Growth of alternative energy sources and lower-emission products could reduce demand and prices for the Company's crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs.
Relevance 72·Dependency 55·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“Further developments could adversely impact the demand for products powered by or manufactured with hydrocarbons and the demand for, and in turn the prices the Company receives for, its crude oil, natural gas, and NGL products”
Global energy demand and supply chain uncertainty
Demand Driver
Global supply chain and financial market uncertainties impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility that drives revenue.
Relevance 70·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Uncertainties in the global supply chain and financial markets impact oil supply and demand and contribute to commodity price volatility.”
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Corporate AMT)
Regulatory Exposure
Company subject to 15% Corporate AMT effective January 1, 2024; any resulting AMT liability could adversely affect earnings and cash flows.
Relevance 70·Dependency 55·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Effective January 1, 2024, the Company is subject to the Corporate AMT.”
Sinopec
Supplier Dependency
Sinopec holds a one-third minority participation interest in Egypt oil and gas operations and received $430 million in cash distributions in 2025.
Relevance 65·Dependency 55·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Sinopec holds a one-third minority participation interest in the Company’s oil and gas operations in Egypt.”
Asset retirement obligations, dismantlement, restoration and abandonment costs feed depreciation and liability estimates, with North Sea oil held in inventory pending sale.
Relevance 65·Dependency 55·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Estimated future dismantlement, restoration and abandonment costs, net of salvage values, are included in the depreciable cost.”
Credit conditions
Legal Exposure
Rising allowance for credit losses ($140M at end of 2025, up from $123M) reflects counterparty credit-quality and liquidity monitoring.
Relevance 60·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“The Company monitors the credit quality of its counterparties through review of collections, credit ratings, and other analyses.”
British pound
Currency Exposure
North Sea revenues in USD but costs (including decommissioning obligations) in GBP, creating FX mismatch hedged with £120 million forwards.
Relevance 60·Dependency 50·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“The Company is subject to increased foreign currency risk associated with the effects of decommissioning obligations in the North Sea.”
Egypt
Geopolitical Exposure
Egypt is a production geography with USD-denominated production contracts and mostly USD costs, limiting direct FX exposure there.
Relevance 55·Dependency 45·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The Company’s Egypt production is sold under U.S. dollar contracts, and the majority of costs incurred are denominated in U.S. dollars.”
Interest rates
Cost Driver
Capitalized interest is based on the Company's weighted-average borrowing cost on debt, linking rates to asset carrying values; a market-based WACC also discounts impairment cash flows.
Relevance 55·Dependency 40·Confidence 80
Source evidence
“Capitalized interest is determined by multiplying the Company's weighted-average borrowing cost on debt by the average amount of qualifying costs incurred.”