GSEs (Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac)
Customer Exposure
GSE charters require private MI on high-LTV mortgages, driving demand for Arch's U.S. mortgage insurance; Arch also participates in GSE CRT programs.
Relevance 90·Dependency 85·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“such “high loan-to-value mortgages” purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac generally are insured with private mortgage insurance”
Bermuda CIT Act
Legal Exposure
Bermuda CIT Act effective January 1, 2025 increases Arch's tax burden in its domicile.
Relevance 90·Dependency 70·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“We are subject to increased taxation in Bermuda as a result of the Bermuda CIT Act, effective January 1, 2025”
Insurance market cycle (hard/soft markets)
Competitive Exposure
Execution of Arch's business strategy depends on hard vs. soft market conditions and competition on pricing, capacity and terms.
Relevance 85·Dependency 80·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“competition, including increased competition, on the basis of pricing, capacity (including alternative sources of capital), coverage terms, or other factors”
Inflation may impair reserve adequacy especially in longer-tailed lines and affect investment portfolio market value and mortgage origination market size.
Relevance 85·Dependency 70·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“This may have a material effect on the adequacy of our reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, especially in longer-tailed lines of business.”
Housing market conditions and home prices
Demand Driver
Home price trends, delinquency and severe housing downturns drive mortgage insurance losses; Arch models maximum loss from severe economic housing events.
Relevance 80·Dependency 75·Confidence 92
Source evidence
“home price trends and expected future home price movements which vary by geography”
GSE housing policy and FHFA capital framework
Regulatory Exposure
Mortgage insurance revenues depend on GSE eligibility requirements, housing policies and Basel III/FHFA ERCF treatment of MI and SRT/CRT.
Relevance 80·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“The implementation of the Basel III Capital Accord and FHFA’s Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework may adversely affect the use of mortgage insurance and SRT and CRT opportunities.”
OECD Pillar II / Bermuda corporate income tax
Regulatory Exposure
Bermuda-headquartered insurer faces potential tax burden from OECD Pillar I/II and Bermuda corporate income tax legislation.
Relevance 80·Dependency 60·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“the adoption of legislation that affects Bermuda-headquartered companies and/or Bermuda-based insurers or reinsurers and/or changes in regulations or tax laws applicable to us”
GSE Congressional charter / U.S. housing finance regulation
Legal Exposure
The GSE 80% LTV charter rule underpins demand for private MI; Arch monitors housing market, financial regulation and public policy developments.
Relevance 75·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“Each GSE’s Congressional charter generally prohibits it from purchasing a mortgage where the principal balance of the mortgage is in excess of 80% of the value of the property securing the mortgage”
MGAs and mortgage lenders
Supplier Dependency
Arch relies on delegated underwriting by agents and mortgage lenders; their breach of underwriting authorities or fraud could cause material losses.
Relevance 75·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“our mortgage group delegates the underwriting of a significant percentage of its primary new insurance written to certain mortgage lenders.”
Allianz MCE business (acquired)
Revenue Exposure
MCE Acquisition is the primary driver of insurance segment 13.4% NPW growth in 2025.
Relevance 75·Dependency 40·Confidence 95
Source evidence
“Growth in net premiums written primarily resulted from the U.S MidCorp and Entertainment insurance businesses acquired from Allianz on August 1, 2024”
GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)
Customer Exposure
Mortgage segment relies on eligibility as approved mortgage insurer for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and on GSE credit risk-sharing transactions.
Relevance 70·Dependency 65·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“approved as eligible mortgage insurers by Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”), each a GSE”
mortgage rates / affordability
Demand Driver
Lower mortgage rates support origination activity but affordability constrains the mortgage insurance market.
Relevance 70·Dependency 60·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“While lower mortgage rates are beginning to support increased origination activity, the current market is still constrained due to affordability challenges”
Artificial intelligence
Technology Dependency
AI presents strategic opportunities but also competitive, operational and regulatory risks; governed by AIGOC and AI Policy.
Relevance 70·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“While we believe AI presents significant opportunities to support our strategic goals, we may not be successful in implementing AI technologies.”
European bank risk transfer (SRT)
Revenue Exposure
Growing SRT business with European banks (via Arch Insurance (EU) and Arch Re Bermuda) driven by lender regulatory capital requirements.
Relevance 70·Dependency 45·Confidence 88
Source evidence
“Increasingly, Arch Insurance (EU) and Arch Re Bermuda are providing protection to European banks on significant risk transfer (“SRT”) transactions.”
General economic conditions (inflation, interest rates, recession)
Demand Driver
General economic and market conditions, including inflation, interest rates, tariffs and recession, are listed factors affecting results.
Relevance 65·Dependency 50·Confidence 90
Source evidence
“general economic and market conditions (including inflation, interest rates, unemployment, housing prices, foreign currency exchange rates, prevailing credit terms, tariffs, geopolitical instability and conflict and the depth and duration of a recession)”
Russia
Regulatory Exposure
U.S., U.K. and EU sanctions on Russia have impacted sectors in which Arch writes business.
Relevance 65·Dependency 40·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K. and EU on Russia and Russia-related businesses have impacted certain sectors in which we write business.”
Interest rate levels and borrower stress
Demand Driver
Rising interest rate levels are cited as a cause of borrower default, driving claims on insured loans.
Relevance 60·Dependency 50·Confidence 85
Source evidence
“Borrowers default for a variety of reasons, including a reduction of income, unemployment, divorce, illness, inability to manage credit, rising interest rate levels and declining home prices.”